Showing posts with label Poli -nomics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Poli -nomics. Show all posts

Sunday, July 8, 2007

Matter of convinience

In the new arrival section of a book store that I visited recently, I saw compilations of Shakespear and Elliot. The authors' sections also had similar volumes. In the Jane Austen's section I found five books written by her costing HK $ 80 a piece and then there was a compilation of all the five novels costing HK $ 299. Needless to say one would buy a compilation rather than those individual books.

I distinctly remember the hundreds of book stalls in college street in Calcutta that I frequently used to visit during my university days. I used to pick up books randomly. My decision used to be based on the impression that I bought from the cover. Authors mattered only when I wanted to read one written by them. And on most of the occassions .... all that mattered was what I felt about the book by what was written at the back cover. I am not as voracious a reader as I used to be ....... but I haven't changed the impression of picking up a book when I happen to visit a store.

What makes a book ...... It's not only what's printed inside. To me the cover, the pictures ..... the author's dedication, his/ her introduction, the preface .... the back cover .... the copyright inscriptions, the publisher's trademark ....... all contributes to an experience that's called a book. And thorugh many emotions that a book carries itself to the end, I live a different life, till such time that the book's last page is turned over. The next book is always a new life ... a new experience. Ofcourse compilations are matters of convinience. Ofcourse it's a modern day thing. Ofcourse it reduces the cost of printing and hence makes books more affordable. Ofcourse ...... Ofcourse .....

Indian Govt! fails to honour

What's the price tag for a farmer's life. Well if he has committed suicide he is worth Rs. 10,000 ($250). That's all that his life is worth for. And what the value of the cheque of Rs. 10,000. Well none because Indian Govt. has no money left to even pay a paltry Rs. 10,000/-.

26 yrs old Vandana Shende's husband had committed suicide in utter disgust and shame for a life and society which could not provide four meals a day to his family. She got a cheque from the Govt. of the above value as price for the life of her husband. And the cheque bounced - the Govt. of India's cheque drawn out of Prime Minister's relief fund bounced.

I am becoming religious. Only God can help us now.

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Kalam is willing

Well well well what do we have here ...... One day after I write Kalam will be remembered as the best Indian President India ever had ...... he make us realise he is the same mortal that we are.
Dr. Kalam is ready for a second term if there is a "certainty". Well the word is open to all kind of interpretation. Some might interpret it as he is willing for a second term if there is political concensus but my reading of it is he is keen for a second term given it can be assured to him that he is certain to win (forget about being a consensus candidate).

I have nothing more to add .....

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Here she comes - Madam President

The Prime Minister and UPA chairperson have signed the papers of Ms Pratibha Patil confirming her nomination for the Presidential elections. In the meanwhile Bhairon Singh Sekhawat has graciously announced his intention to back out as an independent candidate after Rajnath Singh of BJP supported the idea for a second term for the incumbent president Dr. Kalam.

I have been reading lots of views supporting Dr. Kalam and how Ms Patil's nomination allegedly reflects the bonanza for loyalty to the Nehru - Gandhi family. Well my view is completely different from the overwhelming response that the subject has attracted.

We all understand how Indian polity works. For the purpose of this article I would like to emphasize that Indian elections are party based elections unlike say USA which has a presidential form of elections. This means that the public chooses a party to represent them in the government and the party decides the leader of the members in parliament. The ‘leader of the Parliament’ is the Prime Minister who is the CEO of the government. He runs the country. So where does the President fit into this overall scheme of things and why is he called the “Head of the State”.

It so happened, India could not contend itself from being totally indifferent to the British legacy that it so drastically wanted to be oblivion to. So the constitution has a place for a ceremonial entity (in the realms of the monarchy of England but chosen by the electorate college comprising of elected MPs and MLAs) who has been given sexy names like ‘head of state’, ‘first citizen of India’, ‘upholder of the constitution’ and ‘supreme commander of the armed forces’ but with practically no executive power. President of India in past were indeed a ceremonial figure who were dressed properly for all occasions, acted as gracious host for other heads of state and nodded to all decisions taken by the CEO, never ever questioning them.

In my humble personal opinion it was K.R.Narayan who put on the hat of a thinking president for the first time. He moved away from the precedent of following precedents. Constitutional experts would argue that Mr. Narayan was not holding the constitutional spirit by assuming the thinking cap. But come to think of it …… In modern day Indian politics, often dictated by irresponsible smaller regional parties who hold the entire nation to ransom to fulfill their political needs, don’t me need a ‘real president’ who can rein in these selfish wishes. K.R. Narayan set a precedent of not being a rubber stamp. So active was he as a president that BJP decided to nominate Dr. Kalam, a non-political entity to the post of president for the next term hoping to return to the era of ceremonial presidents. I still remember the press conference that Dr. Kalam had after being nominated for the post of presidency and I was disappointed. He seemed to tow to the government’s line like a parrot. But utterly – butterly surprised I was at the unexpected brilliancy he reflected as the ‘people’s president’ during his tenure. No wonder he not only wore the thinking hat that Mr. Narayan had left over at Rastrapati Bhavan but went beyond that in establishing a connect with the people of India that no other president had done before. Dr. Kalam’s tenure might go down into history as one of the best presidential regime India has ever witnessed and he has set the bar even higher than what Mr. Narayan had set before him.

The same party who had nominated Dr. Kalam was not willing for a second term for him in the beginning. He himself had ruled himself out if there was no consensus amongst the political parties across the spectrum. And as the ruling UPA government fiddled with names with strong filtering by the Left, they were left with no option but to select a name whom the Left will have no objection to. With Pratibha Patil, the Congress struck chord with the Left and it was quiet obvious for the NDA that there was no hope for Mr. Bhairav Singh Sekhwat’s run as an independent candidate backed by NDA. So it ridiculously has started suggesting Dr. Kalam’s name for a second term.

Lets accept that the way elections of Indian president happens with the ruling party having an upper hand in deciding the president it will always be a choice of who can paddle along with their decision. NDAs intention of nominating Dr. Kalam was also was same reason given that he had served as National Security Advisor in Vajpayee’s government. Thus to me all the cries and hullabaloos about Ms Patil nomination as a puppet to Sonia Gandhi’s wishes is ridiculous. All parties who now and in future would nominate people who they believe can be their puppets. Whether they will or they won’t is for the history to decide.

There have been innumerable articles suggesting that Ms Gandhi is running a puppet show at the central government and now with Ms Patil’s nomination Ms Gandhi would have an unabated rule at all levels. Well if that’s so can we help it other than cribbing about it? Hell no! Well the congress party is in power, she has support of the UPA allies. She is not the Prime Minister by choice and if we disagree to the power that she wields by being the congress president, let’s throw her out in the next assembly elections but for God’s sake let not cry foul every time and for every thing.

Dr. Kalam did well and there’s no question about it. He would like to continue if there’s a consensus which with Left’s reservation against him is difficult to achieve. So let’s look forward to what’s coming to us instead of crying over split milk.

Instead of ruling out Ms Patil totally let’s sit back and look at the lady’s resume who would soon be called Madam President. She has been in public life for over three decades now. She has gone beyond the realms of politics and taken social service between her teeth as firmly as she could. She runs several institutions for education and for working women, is chairperson of a sugar factory in Jalgaon, and was institutional in setting up an industrial training centre for the blinds amongst other. Amongst the administrative roles besides the several stint as the cabinet minister in the state government, she has been the Deputy Chairman in Rajya Sabha, Chairperson - Committee of Privileges in Rajya Sabha, Member of Business Advisory Committee in Rajya Sabha, Chairman House Committee in Rajya Sabha and lately the Governor of Rajasthan.

Well if I have read enough of her she has her thinking cap on and she has all the credentials for being the President of India. I have hopes from her and I just wish my hopes are not belied. I leave you with a quote from the former president reflecting his tenure. But even if after what he felt like he could achieve what he did ...... I hope future presidents would atleast not do anything less, if not more. I am keeping my fingers crossed for the first woman President of India. I hope you do too …..

As the President of India, I had lots of experiences that were full of pain and helplessness. There were occasions when I could do nothing for people and for the nation. These experiences have pained me a lot. They have depressed me a lot. I have agonised because of the limitations of power. Power and the helplessness surrounding it are a peculiar tragedy, in fact." - K R Narayan

Monday, June 11, 2007

Go Dollar Go ......

Indian rupees is gaining ground with each passing fortnight and I am scared. But why the hell am I scared? Isn't your national currency getting stronger against US $ not a good sign. No, no for heaven's sake. Let dollar be where it is and vice versa. But ain't I kidding myself. Is it so simple. Has it remained so simple.

Any currency gaining against US $ appreciably is never a good sign. Why? Well for the simple reason that it impacts the whole economy. And how is that. Well lets take a short example. Ruppes was trading at around 44 per dollar some three months back. Today it is trading at around 40.70. This means that companies are loosing nearly 10% of their revenue for every dollar of exports. To put it simply $100 of export three months back would have earned Rs 4400, whereas now it would earn only Rs 4070 that is a loss of around Rs 330. But does a stronger rupee doesn't mean that imports will be cheaper. And especially in a country like India with a negative trade balance (when imports are more than exports) wouldn't it benefit more. I think even that is true.

The dynamics of todays economics are not restricted to only trade balances. It has gone far beyond that. With stock market and currency market gaining prominence in the flows of foreign currency, it is no more only how much a country imports that matters. What matters is the bottom line of the companies like IT giants who drive the sentiments across. This is an industry that has typically taken Indian economics to a zooming path. With dollar weaking, the greatest impact is to the bottomline of these companies which affect the overall sentiments. Beyond the IT giants lets look at another example of small scale industries this time like the textile industry which relies heavily on exports and supports five people directly and around two people indirectly. With loss in revenue due to weakening dollar this vulnerable industry is at the peril of annihilation. Well that's not a good sign for sure.

Thats the internal dynamics. But who is driving the rupees so strong. Hey what about the FDIs. Will they invest less or more with a strong rupee sensation. Lets again take the same example of $100 in stocks of company A of Rs 10 each. Lets assume that the stock appreciated by 10% in 3 months. Well three months back the investment would have resulted in 440 shares. Three months later he would take back $119 against $110 had rupee stayed at the same level. Thus a phenomenal gain of additional 9% purely due to exchange rate fluctuation. Thus you can expect to have more FDI with stronger rupees. Does it answer my question. I think somewhat it does. Ofcourse there are hundreds of other reasons for $ weakening and Rs gaining but this piece is really not to discuss economics. Is it? Note: $ 27.3 bn of capital inflow was witnessed during the last fiscal yr (only 11 months data) of which $ 17.1 were in FDI (62%).

Thus my whole submission is that gone are the days when the trade balances decided the level of exchange rates. The dynamics has changed over the period. Besides traditional mechanisms, stock market, FII, FDI and global sentiments all plays their own sweet little part in a free market era as to which direction the currency moves. RBI has been trying and would continue to do so but as we move towards a fully convertible currency regime we can look to more heart breaks and joys. Boy! the game has just begun.

And for yours truly who has been saving that addtional dollar so that he can have his pocket full when he returns to India, well this is a sad story.

Saturday, May 26, 2007

Rahul Gandhi - The next heir to the throne - Is he?

Recently Rajdeep Sardesai in one of his posts on cnn ibn live constantly referred to Rahul Gandhi as prime minister in waiting (although I believe he was speaking more of congressional mindset rather than his own belief) but is it not prepostorous.

In todays so called modern India how many public representatives are given such tags by the media. Mayavati? maybe. Advani? no more. Laloo Yadav. maybe. The issue is with all other public figure there is a possibility. With Rahul Gandhi, the confidence in media is a certainity.

The question to me is why is it so obvious that their has to be an heir to the throne (of Gandhi - Nehru Prime Ministerial position). Why are we so blind to the fact that Congress is not about Gandhi Nehru family even when history tells us non-Gandhi-Nehru family candidates as prime minister has proved to be far more effective (if not personally successful, becoz they never will be).

I don't think India is still ready for Presidential form of governance as opposed to the party democracy which is the mode at present but if UP is any trend, I am sure people will test Rahul Gandhi more for the salt that he deserves rather than for the charisma that he automatically exudes.

To me Rahul can be a successful candidate for the top post only if he can prove to the nation through long hard work on the ground (and mind you, being successful at that) that he has the expertise, aptitude and the attitude to be the Prime Minister of India. And if he goes on to become one before he has proven himself, we can be rest assured that we as a nation has moved backward in not being intelligent enough to decide whether a public representative deserves the top post as rightfully his.

Sunday, May 20, 2007

End of an Era - Tony Blair resigns

Setting White House

Mr. Bush is reflecting over his years in White House ........ I have done good (whatever the people might say .... they never bothered) ..... I have been able to carry on the family legacy of war ..... I have sent out a strong msg "don't mess with America" .... Hey but wait the Iraqi's are not listening .... how do i teach them a lesson .... I have to "I", "I", "I" .....

The phone rings ..... "President ..... Prime Minister Blair is on line"

President - "Put him through"

Prime Minister - "Good day President"

President - "Yeah what ever, so whats up PM"

Prime Minister - "U know i told u I have decided to put in my papers. I am going to tell the queen abt my intentions and then go public"

President - "But why do u have to do that .... whom are u going to hand pick?"

Prime Minister - "President u know i dont have an option ..... this Iraq thing is making my life miserable ...... I think I need some peace ..... I also think its better if I step down now and let some one else manage it and get all the brick bats that I know is going to come in some time .... U see president we are running out of time ..... thats why I have decided to back Gordon .... He has made my life miserable with a face that reminds me thousand times that I didn't do justice to him ... so i want him to enjoy now"

President - "But what will happen to our mutual reltionship?"

Prime Minister - "Don't worry President, he doesnot have an option ... does he" (laughs)

President (laughs) - "Yeah I know ......"

Prime Minister - "Good day then President, just wanted to tell u this before I let the queen and the nation know of my intentions"

President - "Good day to u too PM, Thanx for calling"

CNN Today - "Prime Minister Blair resigns"

BBC World - "End of an Era - Tony Blair resigns"

Nandigram Truce

NDTV reports - "Breakthrough in Nandigram" - Mamta deciding to attend an all party meeting on Nandigram row ..... It all seems so hypocritical with the polical establishments in India. Calcutta (I still prefer 'Calcutta" instead of "Kolkata') has seen economic slowdown to the point of stagnancy over several decades now.

Things had suddenly started looking up. IT contributed to the face lift of a dying city. The sector grew by almost 70%, twice that of national average. Tatas decided to join the bandwagon of a success story and there came the jolt in Nandigram. If the whole scenario of all that happened in Nandigram is not politically motivated then what it is. There have been all kinds of drama enacted that has become the face of Indian politics now. Bloodshed, roadblocs, dharnas, hunger strike, hunger strike being called off, now a truce and then everything will be settled and flow the same flow that should have been months back before the row started.

Mamta Banerjee would be happy that Nandigram gave her dying political life a boost, Buddhadev Bhattacharjee would be happy that he has been able to stick his gun and carry out his agenda and Tata's will be happy to see the row being over and they get back to normalcy. What about the people for whom the whole drama was enacted..... their lives flow the same flow as well. Nothing would change with this drama than it would have been without it.

I am going to use cliched dialogue but just cant help it .... When shall we realise that we all cumulatively need to rise beyond our petty selves in politics and realise the dream that makes politics - to work for people .....

Hope doesn't bely us and I really hope for the same ....